Failed auction (look above and fail)
A failed auction is a probe beyond a reference level, such as the previous high, the initial balance or the edge of a balance area, that finds no follow-through and returns inside. Market Profile traders call it a look above and fail, or a look below and fail, and read it as evidence that the other side controls that edge, often with the opposite side of the range as the next reference.
Senzoukria · Glossary · Updated September 2026
Definition
An auction that moves beyond a reference is looking for participants willing to trade at the new prices. If it finds them, volume builds and the market accepts the new area. If it does not, price returns inside quickly and the probe has failed. The level that was probed becomes a reference defended by the side that rejected it, and the traders who bought or sold the break are left holding losing positions.
Failed auction, excess and unfinished auction
- A failed auction is an event relative to a reference: price went beyond it and came back.
- Excess is the profile structure a sharp rejection leaves at an extreme: a tail of single prints.
- An unfinished auction, in Senzoukria's footprint convention, is a bar extreme where the aggressive side did not print at all; it concerns one bar's extreme, not a reference level.
- A failed auction often leaves excess at the probed extreme, but it can also return slowly, leaving no tail.
A worked example
A market has balanced between 5,000.00 and 5,020.00 for two sessions. In the third, price trades up to 5,022.75 in the first bracket after the open. Over the next forty minutes it prints three brackets above 5,020.00, but on thin volume, with aggressive buying absorbed at 5,022.00 to 5,022.75 and no new high. Price then falls back below 5,020.00 and the next bracket trades 5,015.00. That is a look above and fail at the top of balance. Auction logic points to the lower edge, 5,000.00, as the next reference; how often that happens on a given instrument is a question for the data, not a rule.
Testing the pattern
- Define the reference, the probe and the return in advance: how far beyond, for how long, and back inside by how much.
- Record every probe of that reference, including those that were accepted and did not fail.
- Measure what followed the failures, over a fixed horizon, net of realistic costs.
In Senzoukria
The Market Profile (TPO) overlay marks the references and the traces a failed probe leaves: 'Initial balance', 'Single prints & tails' and 'Poor high / low'. Prior Session H/L/C, Overnight High/Low and the developing value area overlays give the other usual references. On the footprint, Delta Divergence marks bars that close against their delta, and Absorption Markers flag prices where aggression was absorbed near the bar's extreme, the typical inside of a failed probe.
Related
In the same section
- Neutral day
- Fair value
- Extrinsic value
- Fair value gap
- Expected shortfall
- Fat tails
- Expected move
- Feed status
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Frequently asked questions
- Is a failed auction the same as a stop run?
- They often coincide, since a probe beyond an obvious level triggers stops. 'Stop run' describes that mechanical triggering; 'failed auction' describes the structural result, price rejected beyond a reference and returned inside. A stop run can also succeed, becoming acceptance at new prices.
- Does a failed auction at the top of a range mean price will reach the bottom?
- Auction logic makes the opposite edge the next reference, and many traders target it. Whether price reaches it is uncertain and depends on the instrument, the session and the size of the range; measure it on your own data before relying on it.