Economic Calendar Events That Move Futures, Explained

• 10Y and 30Y Treasury auctions — The US Treasury sells 10-year notes and 30-year bonds every month, as new issues in the quarterly refunding months and as reopenings in the others. Competitive bids close at 1:00 p.m. Eastern and results follow within minutes. Treasury futures (ZN, TN, ZB, UB) react to whether the auction cleared at a higher or lower yield than the market was trading just before the deadline, and to how demand was split among bidders.
• ADP employment report — The ADP National Employment Report estimates the monthly change in US private-sector employment from anonymized payroll data processed by ADP, produced with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. The monthly report is published at 8:15 a.m. Eastern a few days before the official jobs report, and ADP also publishes a weekly preliminary estimate; both are read as early and imperfect hints of the BLS numbers.
• API crude inventories — The American Petroleum Institute publishes its Weekly Statistical Bulletin on Tuesdays at approximately 4:30 p.m. Eastern, and on Wednesday when the Monday is a federal holiday. Built from data reported voluntarily by industry, it gives the week's change in US crude, gasoline and distillate stocks a day before the official EIA report, and crude futures trade on it in the thinner post-settlement session.
• Average hourly earnings — Average hourly earnings is the average pay per hour of US private-sector employees, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the monthly Employment Situation report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Futures traders read its monthly change as a signal about wage-driven inflation, but it shares the release second with payrolls and the unemployment rate, so its own effect on price cannot be isolated.
• Bank of Canada decision — The Bank of Canada announces its policy interest rate on eight fixed dates a year, at 9:45 a.m. Eastern, fifteen minutes after the US cash equity open. Four of those announcements come with the Monetary Policy Report. Canadian dollar futures (6C) react directly, and the timing inside US regular hours means the reaction meets a deeper book than most foreign central bank decisions.
• Bank of England decision — The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee announces its Bank Rate decision eight times a year at 12:00 London time, publishing the Monetary Policy Summary and the minutes with the vote of each of its nine members. The vote split and the guidance move British pound futures (6B) and UK rate futures, and quarterly Monetary Policy Report rounds add new forecasts.
• Bank of Japan decision — The Bank of Japan's Policy Board holds eight Monetary Policy Meetings a year. Unlike most central banks, it does not publish a fixed announcement time: the statement is released when the meeting concludes, usually during the Tokyo day, which is the US evening. Japanese yen futures (6J) and Nikkei futures react, often in a thin overnight book.
• Canada Labour Force Survey — Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey reports monthly employment, the unemployment rate and wages in Canada. Like all Statistics Canada releases it is published at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, and it can land on the same morning as the US jobs report. Canadian dollar futures (6C) react to both, which makes the reaction on those days a combined one.
• Commitments of Traders — The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission generally each Friday at 3:30 p.m. Eastern, shows the open interest of reportable traders in US futures and options markets as of the preceding Tuesday. It rarely moves prices at release, but it is the main public source on how different groups of traders are positioned.
• China CPI and PPI — China's National Bureau of Statistics publishes consumer and producer price indexes monthly at 09:30 Beijing time, which is the US evening. Chinese inflation matters to futures traders mostly through what it says about Chinese demand and deflation pressure: copper (HG), the Australian dollar (6A) and crude oil react more often than US index futures.
• China PMI — China's official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs are published by the National Bureau of Statistics at 09:30 Beijing time on the last day of each month, except in February. A private manufacturing PMI compiled by S&P Global, long known as the Caixin PMI, follows early the next month. Both are read for Chinese demand, with effects on copper, the Australian dollar and crude oil.
• Consumer confidence — The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is a monthly survey of US households, published at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, generally on the last Tuesday of the month. Its questions lean toward business and labor conditions, and the gap between respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get is watched as an early labor-market signal.
• ECB rate decision — The European Central Bank's Governing Council takes monetary policy decisions every six weeks. The decision is published at 14:15 Frankfurt time (the ECB labels it CET) and the President's press conference starts at 14:45. Euro FX futures (6E) and European rate and index futures reprice on the decision, the statement and the answers, often in two distinct waves.
• EIA crude inventories — The US Energy Information Administration publishes its Weekly Petroleum Status Report on Wednesdays at 10:30 a.m. Eastern, delayed in holiday weeks. It reports US commercial crude oil stocks, stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, gasoline and distillate stocks, refinery runs, production and trade. Crude oil futures (CL) react to the difference between the reported change and expectations, and the book in CL visibly thins before the release.
• EIA natural gas storage — The EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, published on Thursdays at 10:30 a.m. Eastern with holiday exceptions, gives the estimated volume of working gas in underground storage in the Lower 48 states and its weekly change in billion cubic feet. Natural gas futures (NG) react to the injection or withdrawal relative to expectations, the five-year average and the year-ago level.
• Empire State survey — The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State run by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and published at 8:30 a.m. Eastern around mid-month. It is one of the earliest reads on manufacturing conditions for the current month, reported as diffusion indexes in which zero, not 50, separates improvement from deterioration.
• Employment Cost Index — The Employment Cost Index is the Bureau of Labor Statistics' quarterly measure of the change in what employers pay for labor, wages and salaries plus benefits, with fixed job weights that remove most composition effects. It is published at 8:30 a.m. Eastern about a month after each quarter ends and is followed closely by the Federal Reserve as a clean wage-inflation gauge.
• Euro area flash HICP — Eurostat publishes a flash estimate of euro area inflation, measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), at 11:00 Central European time around the end of each reference month. It is the first aggregate read of the inflation measure the ECB targets, and because national figures from Germany, France, Italy and Spain often come out before it, the market arrives with a partial picture.
• Existing home sales — Existing home sales are published monthly by the National Association of Realtors at 10:00 a.m. Eastern. They count completed sales of previously owned homes, reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate with the median price, inventory and months' supply. Because they record closings, they reflect contracts signed one to two months earlier and the mortgage rates of that time.
• Fed Chair testimony — Twice a year the Federal Reserve submits its Monetary Policy Report to Congress, and the Chair testifies before the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee; the months vary from year to year. The prepared remarks and hours of questions can shift rate expectations, and because the information arrives unevenly the order flow is read as a long, uneven event rather than a single print.
• Fed speakers and blackout — Federal Reserve officials speak publicly many times between FOMC meetings, and those speeches can move rates and index futures when they hint at the next decision. Before each meeting, a blackout period silences policy commentary: under the FOMC's external communications policy it runs from 12:00 a.m. Eastern on the second Saturday before a meeting to 11:59 p.m. Eastern on the day after it.
• Dot plot and SEP — At four FOMC meetings a year, in March, June, September and December, the Federal Reserve publishes the Summary of Economic Projections with the 2:00 p.m. Eastern statement. It includes each participant's projections for growth, unemployment and inflation and the dot plot of their appropriate policy rate path, which futures compare with the path already priced in fed funds and SOFR futures.
• FOMC minutes — The minutes of each scheduled FOMC meeting are published at 2:00 p.m. Eastern, three weeks after the day of the policy decision. They describe the staff outlook and the range of views among participants, so futures react when the minutes change the market's reading of how divided or determined the Committee was.
• FOMC press conference — After each scheduled FOMC meeting the Federal Reserve Chair holds a press conference, starting at 2:30 p.m. Eastern, thirty minutes after the policy statement. It has no single release second: answers arrive over roughly an hour, so futures can trend, reverse or chop through it, and the order flow is read as a continuous auction rather than as a spike.
• FOMC rate decision — The Federal Open Market Committee sets the target range for the federal funds rate at eight scheduled meetings a year and publishes its decision in a policy statement at 2:00 p.m. Eastern. The statement, the vote and the implementation note reprice Treasury, stock index, currency and gold futures, and the press conference at 2:30 p.m. often produces a second wave of trading.
• German Ifo index — The ifo Business Climate Index for Germany is a monthly survey of German companies published by the ifo Institute in Munich at 10:30 Central European time. It combines firms' assessment of their current situation with their expectations for the next six months, and it is read as an early indicator for Germany and, by extension, for the euro area and the euro.
• Housing starts and permits — Housing starts and building permits come from the monthly New Residential Construction report, published by the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Permits lead starts, both are reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, and the housing cycle is one of the most rate-sensitive parts of the economy.
• Initial jobless claims — Initial jobless claims count new applications for state unemployment insurance in the United States. The Department of Labor publishes them weekly, generally on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, together with continuing claims. They are the most frequent official labor data, so futures react mainly when the trend changes or when labor data are the market's focus.
• ISM Manufacturing PMI — The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey of US purchasing managers published by the Institute for Supply Management at 10:00 a.m. Eastern on the first business day of the month. It is a diffusion index where 50 separates expansion from contraction, and its prices and new orders components are read for inflation and demand.
• ISM Services PMI — The ISM Services PMI is the Institute for Supply Management's monthly survey of US services purchasing managers, published at 10:00 a.m. Eastern on the third business day of the month. Services make up most of US activity, and the survey's prices index is watched as an early read on services inflation, the part the Federal Reserve finds hardest to bring down.
• Jackson Hole symposium — The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is an annual conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, in late August. The Fed Chair's speech there is watched closely because it has been used to set out the policy outlook and, in 2020, to announce a revised monetary policy framework. Futures react to the speech text and to any change it implies for the rate path.
• JOLTS job openings — The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, reports job openings, hires, quits and layoffs. It describes labor demand with roughly a one-month lag to the jobs report, and because it prints during regular trading hours the order book that absorbs it is usually deeper than at 8:30 a.m.
• Month-end rebalancing — At the end of each month and quarter, pension funds, balanced funds and index-tracking portfolios bring their holdings back to target weights, currency hedges are reset and benchmark fixes are used for large transactions. These flows are not published in advance; estimates circulate from banks and analysts, and they show up in futures mostly around the cash close and the 4 p.m. London FX fix.
• New home sales — New home sales are published monthly by the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development at 10:00 a.m. Eastern in the New Residential Sales report. They count signed contracts on newly built homes, reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. The series is timely but volatile, with wide confidence intervals and large revisions, which limits how much futures react.
• Nonfarm payrolls — Nonfarm payrolls is the monthly change in US employment outside farming, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, usually on a Friday early in the month. It arrives together with the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings, so futures react to three numbers and their revisions at once.
• OPEC+ meetings — OPEC+ is the alliance of OPEC members and partner producers such as Russia that coordinates oil production policy. Its ministerial meetings, monitoring committee sessions and the separate meetings of member groups with voluntary cuts have no fixed release time, are often held online and sometimes conclude on weekends. Crude oil futures (CL) can therefore reprice at the Sunday evening reopening rather than at a scheduled second.
• PCE and core PCE — The PCE price index, published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in the Personal Income and Outlays report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, is the inflation measure the Federal Reserve uses to define its 2% goal. Core PCE excludes food and energy. Because much of it can be estimated from CPI and PPI components beforehand, the surprise is often smaller than on CPI day.
• Pending home sales — The Pending Home Sales Index, published monthly by the National Association of Realtors at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, tracks contracts signed on existing homes. Because a closing usually follows a contract by one to two months, it is read as a leading indicator of existing home sales. Futures typically react little unless the housing market is the focus of the moment.
• Philly Fed survey — The Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey reports conditions at manufacturers in its district, covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware. It is published monthly at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, on dates the Philadelphia Fed announces in advance, typically a Thursday in the second half of the month. Like the Empire State survey it uses diffusion indexes centred on zero and is read as an early signal for national manufacturing.
• Quadruple witching — Quadruple witching, also called triple witching, is the third Friday of March, June, September and December, when quarterly stock index futures, index options and single-stock options expire together. For E-mini S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures, trading in the expiring contract terminates at 9:30 a.m. Eastern that day, and in the days before, volume and open interest roll to the next quarterly contract.
• RBA rate decision — The Reserve Bank of Australia's board has met eight times a year since February 2024. Its decision is published at 2:30 p.m. Sydney time, followed by the Governor's press conference at 3:30 p.m. The Australian dollar (6A futures) reacts during the US night, and because Australia's economy is tied to commodity exports and Chinese demand, RBA days are often read alongside China data.
• Flash PMIs — S&P Global publishes flash Purchasing Managers' Index estimates in the second half of each month, before the final PMIs at the start of the next month. The European flashes arrive one after another in the morning, France, then Germany, then the euro area, with the UK alongside, and the US flash follows at 9:45 a.m. Eastern. They move euro, sterling and US index futures because they are the first survey read of the current month.
• SNB policy assessment — The Swiss National Bank conducts its monetary policy assessment once a quarter, in March, June, September and December, publishing its decision at 09:30 Swiss time followed by a news conference at 10:00. Beyond the policy rate, the SNB uses foreign exchange interventions, and its history includes a major unscheduled decision, so Swiss franc futures (6S) are read with both in mind.
• Beige Book — The Beige Book is the Federal Reserve's summary of commentary on current economic conditions gathered by the twelve Reserve Banks from businesses and contacts in their districts. It is published eight times a year, two weeks before each FOMC meeting, at 2:00 p.m. Eastern. It rarely moves futures much, but it can colour the reading of the data ahead of a meeting.
• Treasury quarterly refunding — Four times a year, in February, May, August and November, the US Treasury publishes its borrowing estimates and then its quarterly refunding statement, which sets the sizes of coupon auctions for the coming quarter and gives guidance on future issuance. Because it determines how much long-term debt the market must absorb, the refunding can move Treasury futures and, through long yields, stock index futures.
• UK CPI — UK consumer price inflation is published monthly by the Office for National Statistics at 07:00 London time. The CPI is the measure behind the Bank of England's 2% target, and services inflation is watched closely by the Monetary Policy Committee. The release lands in the US overnight session, so British pound futures (6B) react on a thin book.
• UMich sentiment — The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers publish a monthly index of consumer sentiment, first as a preliminary reading and then as a final reading later in the month; the final reading is released at 10:00 a.m. Eastern. Futures traders watch the headline for spending intentions and, often more closely, the survey's one-year and long-run inflation expectations, which the Federal Reserve tracks.
• US core CPI — Core CPI is the US Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the same 8:30 a.m. Eastern release as headline CPI. Because it strips out the most volatile prices, its month-over-month change is the figure Treasury and stock index futures usually reprice on.
• US CPI — The US Consumer Price Index is the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly measure of the change in prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. It is released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, and because it shifts expectations for Federal Reserve policy it reprices Treasury, stock index, currency and gold futures within seconds.
• US debt ceiling — The US debt ceiling is the statutory limit on federal borrowing. When it binds, the Treasury uses extraordinary measures to keep paying its obligations until an estimated X-date, and negotiations in Congress produce headlines at unpredictable times. Futures react to those headlines, to credit rating actions and to the pricing of Treasury bills maturing around the X-date, rather than to a scheduled release.
• Durable goods orders — Durable goods orders measure new orders placed with US manufacturers for goods meant to last three years or more. The Census Bureau publishes the advance report monthly at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The headline swings with aircraft orders, so futures traders focus on orders excluding transportation and on core capital goods, a proxy for business investment.
• US GDP — US gross domestic product is published quarterly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, first as an advance estimate about a month after the quarter ends, then revised in later estimates. Futures react less to the headline growth rate, which nowcasts anticipate, than to its components and to the quarterly inflation measures published in the same release.
• US government shutdown — A US government shutdown happens when Congress does not pass funding and a lapse in appropriations forces agencies to stop non-essential work. For futures traders the direct effect is on information: releases from agencies such as the BLS, BEA and Census can be postponed, while Federal Reserve and private data continue. Markets then trade on fewer numbers and on funding headlines.
• Industrial production — Industrial production measures the real output of US manufacturing, mining and utilities. The Federal Reserve Board publishes it monthly in the G.17 release, generally at 9:15 a.m. Eastern, together with capacity utilization. Futures usually react modestly, because much of the manufacturing picture is already known from surveys and hours worked in the jobs report.
• US PPI — The Producer Price Index, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, measures the average change in selling prices received by US producers. Futures traders watch final demand PPI and its core measures both as an inflation signal and because some components feed directly into estimates of the Fed's preferred PCE gauge.
• US retail sales — US retail sales, published monthly by the Census Bureau at 8:30 a.m. Eastern in the Advance Monthly Retail Trade report, measure the dollar value of sales at retailers and food services. Futures traders look beyond the headline to the control group, which feeds GDP estimates of consumer spending, and to revisions of the previous month.
• US unemployment rate — The US unemployment rate is the share of the labor force that is jobless and looking for work, estimated each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics from the household survey and published in the Employment Situation report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. A change of one tenth of a point can reprice rate expectations because labor slack is half of the Federal Reserve's mandate.
• WASDE report — The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is published monthly by the US Department of Agriculture at 12:00 p.m. Eastern. It gives US and world balance sheets for grains, oilseeds, cotton, sugar and livestock products, and it is the scheduled event that most often reprices corn (ZC), soybean (ZS) and wheat (ZW) futures during the day session.
• ZEW economic sentiment — The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is a monthly survey of financial market experts run by the ZEW institute in Mannheim, published at 11:05 Frankfurt time in 2026. It measures expectations for the German economy over the next six months, together with an assessment of the current situation and a euro area expectations index, and is read as an early sentiment signal for the euro.

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