China PMI: the official NBS survey and the private S&P Global PMI

Two surveys, different samples

The official manufacturing PMI surveys a large sample generally described as weighted toward bigger and state-linked companies; a non-manufacturing PMI covers services and construction. The private manufacturing PMI compiled by S&P Global samples more private and export-oriented firms. The two manufacturing readings can diverge in the same month because they describe different parts of the economy.

Both are diffusion indexes: above 50 means more firms reported improvement than deterioration. The official PMI is published on the last calendar day of the month, weekends included; February's is delayed into March because of the Lunar New Year holiday.

What the market reads

• Headline manufacturing PMI relative to 50 and to consensus.
• New orders and new export orders, for domestic and external demand.
• Price sub-indexes, as a hint for the PPI later in the month.
• Construction activity in the non-manufacturing PMI, relevant to metals demand.
• Agreement or divergence between the official and private readings.

Why futures react

Chinese industrial activity drives a large share of global demand for copper, iron ore and energy. A PMI surprise moves HG and commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar, and can shift crude oil expectations. US index futures react mostly when the data change the global growth picture; the Asian session setting means their reaction is often small and later revisited.

Order flow on a month-end evening

The official PMI lands at 09:30 Beijing time, which is the US evening on the last day of the month. For US traders that is after the month-end close, when books are thin. On HG and 6A footprints, a surprise shows as a burst and a few levels of travel; the reaction is often tested again in the European morning.

Because the official PMI falls on the last calendar day, it can land on a weekend. In that case the first reaction comes at the Sunday evening reopening of CME Globex, and it can show as an opening gap on the first bar.

In Senzoukria

Chinese releases appear in the News calendar under CN, off by default; enable it in the Countries filter. When a row name contains Caixin, the calendar describes it as “China private survey — global growth read.” The Quant mode card lists no contract for Chinese releases rather than inventing one.

The Gap Open indicator marks bars that open at least a set number of ticks away from the previous bar's close (4 by default), which is where a weekend PMI release shows up on the Sunday reopening.