Empire State Manufacturing Survey: the New York Fed's early monthly read

How the survey works

Manufacturers in New York State answer whether conditions improved, stayed the same or worsened compared with the previous month, and what they expect six months ahead. Each index is the share reporting an increase minus the share reporting a decrease. A positive value means more firms saw improvement; zero means balance. This differs from the ISM, where 50 is the dividing line.

Besides the headline general business conditions index, the survey reports new orders, shipments, employment, prices paid and prices received, and a separate set of expectations indexes.

Why an early regional survey gets attention

• Timing: it describes the current month and is published before most national data for that month.
• Prices paid and received: an early indication of goods price pressure at the factory level.
• Volatility: the sample is small, so the headline can swing widely; traders often wait for the Philadelphia Fed survey later in the month to confirm a move.
• Special questions: the New York Fed sometimes adds topical questions, on tariffs or supply chains for example, that can draw attention.

Why futures react

A large swing in the headline can shift expectations for the national ISM survey and for manufacturing activity, which affects index futures. The prices indexes can nudge Treasury futures when goods inflation is the focus. Reactions are usually brief because the survey is regional and noisy, and they depend on what else is released in the same minute.

Order flow on a crowded 8:30 minute

The Empire State survey often shares 8:30 ET with other releases in the middle of the month, such as retail sales or price data, which usually carry more weight. On those mornings the footprint of the 7:30 CT bar is dominated by the bigger release. When it prints alone, the book's step-back beforehand is light, and a strong surprise shows as a moderate sweep that often fades.

A reaction that holds past the first few minutes, with delta building in the same direction and price accepting outside the overnight range, is the exception worth noting. It often means the survey reinforced a growth story already in play.

In Senzoukria

In the News calendar the survey is listed under US; the Quant mode card places it in the Survey family. It is often rated below high by the calendar source, so enable Medium in the Impact filter if it does not show.

The Cumulative delta (CVD) panel resets at each CME session open by default. On a mid-month morning with several 8:30 releases, the CVD slope from 7:30 CT onward shows whether aggressive buying or selling kept building after the minute or faded with the book's return.