US PPI (Producer Price Index): release, components and futures reaction

What PPI measures

CPI looks at prices from the buyer's side; PPI looks at them from the seller's side. It tracks the prices domestic producers receive for goods, services and construction. The headline is final demand, the aggregate of goods, services and construction sold to final users, with separate indexes for intermediate demand further up the production chain.

Two core versions are common: final demand less foods and energy, and final demand less foods, energy and trade services. Trade services measure changes in the margins of wholesalers and retailers, which can swing sharply from month to month, so the second measure is the steadier of the two.

Why a producer index matters to futures

• Pipeline pressure: rising input and producer prices can pass through to consumer prices later, although the pass-through is neither complete nor fixed.
• PCE mapping: some PPI components, such as portfolio management fees, airline passenger services and parts of health care, are used by forecasters to estimate the PCE price index published later in the month. A PPI surprise in those lines can move the expected PCE print even when headline PPI is on consensus.
• Order in the month: PPI sometimes lands before CPI and sometimes after it. Released first, it can set the tone for CPI day; released after, it mostly refines estimates that the market has already partly formed.
• Rates first: ZN and ZB carry the inflation repricing, and ES and NQ follow through the discount-rate and financial-conditions channel.

Order flow on PPI mornings

PPI is usually rated below CPI in market attention, and the order book reflects that: liquidity withdrawal ahead of 8:30 ET tends to be shallower and briefer than on CPI or payrolls mornings. The heatmap may show only the inside levels thinning for a short time rather than a broad fade.

That makes the post-release reading more about acceptance than about the first burst. Watch whether price holds outside the pre-release range once the initial aggressive volume is done, or rotates back into it with delta turning. A strong first footprint bar followed by quick rotation back into the overnight range suggests the market did not treat the surprise as decisive; continuation with repeated initiative volume suggests it did. On days when PPI arrives alongside other 8:30 ET data, such as jobless claims, the reaction cannot be attributed to one release alone.

Reading the PPI calendar entry

In Senzoukria

PPI rows sit in the News calendar under the US filter; if you only see high-impact rows and PPI is missing, enable Medium in the Impact filter, since the rating comes from the calendar source. When the row name matches, the calendar adds the description “Producer inflation — feeds into headline CPI next month.”, and for the core line “Core producer prices — leading CPI indicator.”

The week-ahead strip shows the load of high and medium events per day; clicking a day filters the calendar to it, which makes it easy to see whether PPI and CPI fall in the same week and in which order. On the chart, a macro event line marks the release so the footprint of the 7:30 CT bar can be compared with the CPI morning in the same week.