USDA WASDE report: monthly supply and demand estimates for grain futures

What WASDE contains

Each report presents balance sheets for the current and next marketing years: supply (beginning stocks, production, imports), use (domestic use, exports) and ending stocks. For the US it details acreage, yields and use categories; for the world it covers major producers and importers. During the growing season, USDA's crop production estimates are released at the same time and feed the yield and production figures.

Ending stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio summarise how tight the balance is. The market compares each figure with the average of analysts' estimates collected before the report.

Figures grain traders compare

Why grain futures react

Futures price the expected balance at the end of the marketing year. A lower-than-expected US yield or ending stocks figure suggests a tighter market, a higher one the opposite, and the reaction depends on the gap with trade estimates. Because the report covers several crops at once, corn, soybeans and wheat can react differently in the same minute, and spreads between them move as well.

Order flow at 11:00 a.m. Chicago

The release comes in the middle of the CBOT grain day session. In the minutes before, grain books often thin and spreads widen; at noon Eastern, the first trades can sweep several levels, and the footprint shows whether aggression continues or meets passive size. Because several figures matter, first reactions based on one number can reverse as the rest of the report is read.

Some reports, particularly those that come with major USDA crop surveys, produce larger moves. The day's volume profile often shows a thin area where price travelled quickly after the release and a new area of acceptance afterwards.

In Senzoukria

The economic calendar in Senzoukria is built from a currency-oriented feed and is not a source for USDA reports; use USDA's published schedule. In the news wire, the AGS tag matches headlines mentioning WASDE, USDA, crops, corn, wheat or soybeans, and the ZC, ZS and ZW presets filter on it.

Replay can load a closed CME session tick by tick for grain contracts from the contract grid's Grains group, which lets you review how a past WASDE day traded, trades only and without the order book.