Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium: the Fed Chair's late-summer speech

Why this conference matters to futures

Most academic conferences do not move markets. Jackson Hole does because the Fed Chair has repeatedly used the opening speech to frame the policy outlook for the months ahead. In August 2020 the Chair announced there the results of the Fed's framework review, a revised statement of longer-run goals and strategy. Other central bank governors also speak, so the conference can matter for euro, yen and sterling futures.

The speech comes during a month when many participants are away, and it falls between FOMC meetings, which adds to its weight: it is often the main policy communication of the late summer.

What the market listens for

• Framing of inflation and employment risks, compared with the last FOMC statement.
• Any signal on the timing or pace of the next rate moves.
• Changes to how the Fed describes its strategy or reaction function.
• Remarks by other central bank governors that shift expectations for their own policy.

Order flow around the speech

The speech text is usually released when the Chair begins speaking, which gives the event a trigger similar to a data release. In the minutes before, the heatmap can show liquidity stepping back from the inside levels, and the first reaction appears as the text is parsed. Late-summer books are often thinner than usual, so moves can be larger per contract traded.

After the initial burst, the reading shifts to acceptance. The footprint shows whether aggressive volume keeps pushing into new prices or meets passive size that holds. Over the rest of the session, volume profile shows whether price builds value at new levels or rotates back into the range of the days before the conference. A move that holds into the following sessions says more than the first minute.

In Senzoukria

The speech may appear in the News calendar as a speech row for the Chair, described as a central bank chair speech when the name matches. The News wire's full-text search covers the last seven days of headlines from its reference sources, so searching jackson hole lists the coverage of the conference; headlines are delayed by about 15 minutes.

The DOM ladder next to the footprint shows resting size per level and keeps faded memory rows for prices that left the book during the session, which helps see where the book was before the speech once the move has passed. The heatmap's five-minute fine history lets you pan back to the minutes before the text came out.