Average hourly earnings: US wage growth in the jobs report
Average hourly earnings is the average pay per hour of US private-sector employees, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the monthly Employment Situation report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Futures traders read its monthly change as a signal about wage-driven inflation, but it shares the release second with payrolls and the unemployment rate, so its own effect on price cannot be isolated.
Senzoukria · Economic events · Updated September 2026
At a glance
- Published by
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, establishment survey
- Usual time
- 8:30 a.m. ET (7:30 a.m. Chicago), inside the Employment Situation
- Figures
- Monthly change (one decimal) and 12-month change
- Coverage
- All employees on private nonfarm payrolls; a production and nonsupervisory series is also published
- Contracts in scope
- ZN, ZT and other Treasury futures; ES, NQ; 6E, 6J; GC
What the figure measures
Employers in the establishment survey report payroll and hours; BLS divides one by the other to get average hourly earnings. It is an average across whoever is on payrolls in that month, not the raise received by a typical worker.
That makes the series sensitive to composition. If many low-wage jobs disappear, the average rises even though nobody's pay changed; if low-wage hiring surges, the average can slow. Large swings in the mix of industries or hours can dominate a monthly reading.
Why wages matter to rates and index futures
- Services inflation depends heavily on labor costs, so faster wage growth can sustain inflation even when goods prices cool.
- The Federal Reserve watches wage growth relative to productivity; wages rising well above productivity growth push unit labor costs up.
- Treasury futures reprice the expected policy path; the dollar, 6E and 6J, and gold follow the change in US rates.
- Index futures read wages through two channels: consumer income supports spending, while wage-driven inflation can keep rates higher.
Other wage measures to compare
| Measure | Publisher and frequency | Main difference |
|---|---|---|
| Average hourly earnings | BLS, monthly | Timely but affected by workforce composition |
| Employment Cost Index | BLS, quarterly | Fixed job weights, includes benefits, less affected by composition |
| ADP pay insights | ADP, monthly | Median pay change for job-stayers and job-changers from payroll records |
| Unit labor costs | BLS productivity release, quarterly | Compensation relative to output per hour |
Order flow: one bar, three causes
Because earnings, payrolls and unemployment arrive in the same second, the release bar on the footprint is the combined reaction to the whole report. No tool can say afterwards which part of the move belonged to wages. What the tape can show is how participants behave once the report is read: a first move that extends with sustained initiative volume and delta, or a move that stalls against heavy passive liquidity and rotates.
Rates futures are where a wage surprise is most likely to show on its own terms. A ZN reaction that is out of proportion to the payrolls surprise can hint that the market weighted the wage figure. Checking ZN next to ES in two chart panes is more informative than reading either alone.
In Senzoukria
The wage row appears in the News calendar next to payrolls with the description “Wage growth — sticky inflation signal.” when its name matches. The chart workspace can show several panes, so ZN and ES footprints can run side by side on the same timeline, each with its own macro event line at 7:30 CT.
To study how the jobs report has traded before, Replay loads closed CME sessions tick by tick for a chosen contract and day. It reconstructs trades, delta and profiles, not the order book, so the depth behaviour before the print is only visible live.
Related pages
- Nonfarm payrolls
- Employment Cost Index
- Chart workspace: panes and layouts
- Replay setup
- Initiative activity
In the same section
- Bank of Canada decision
- API crude inventories
- Bank of England decision
- ADP employment report
- Bank of Japan decision
- 10Y and 30Y Treasury auctions
- Canada Labour Force Survey
- Commitments of Traders
Sources
- BLS release schedule: The Employment Situation (2026-09-25)
This page in other languages
Frequently asked questions
- Why did average hourly earnings jump when employment fell?
- The figure is an average over the people still on payrolls. When job losses are concentrated in lower-paid industries, the average rises mechanically. This composition effect is why the Employment Cost Index is used as a cleaner wage measure.
- Which wage number moves futures most?
- The monthly change in average hourly earnings is the one available on jobs day, so it gets the immediate attention. The quarterly Employment Cost Index is less timely but less distorted, and can matter more when the market is focused on wage inflation.