S&P Global flash PMIs: the late-month read on Europe, the UK and the US

What a flash PMI is

PMIs are diffusion indexes built from monthly surveys of purchasing managers: companies report whether output, new orders, employment, prices and other variables rose, held or fell. A reading above 50 means improvement was more widespread than deterioration. The flash is an early estimate based on the responses collected by the flash date; the final PMI, published at the start of the following month, adds the late responses and occasionally revises the picture.

The composite output index combines manufacturing output and services activity and is the most quoted single number for the euro area. Services carry more weight in most large economies.

Why the sequence of releases matters

Because France and Germany come first and together weigh heavily in the euro area aggregate, the euro-area number is partly anticipated by the time it prints. A strong German surprise often does most of the work, and the euro-area release then confirms or tempers it.

Why futures react

Flash PMIs are the first comprehensive read on activity in the current month, weeks before official output data. A surprise shifts growth expectations and, through them, expectations for the European Central Bank, the Bank of England or the Federal Reserve. In the euro area and the UK the survey price indexes are also watched for services inflation. Euro and sterling futures (6E, 6B) react through the rates channel; US index futures react mostly to the US flash, although a strong European surprise can set the tone of the US overnight session.

Order flow: steps in the European morning

During European summer and US daylight time, the French flash lands at 3:15 a.m. ET and the euro-area flash at 4:00 a.m. ET, in the middle of the US overnight session. The book in 6E is thinner than during US hours, so the reaction often shows as a series of steps, one per release, each with a burst of aggressive volume. On the footprint, each step is a bar with more volume and a clear delta sign; between steps the tape slows again.

The US flash at 9:45 a.m. ET comes fifteen minutes into the regular session, when ES and NQ books are deep; reactions there are usually smaller per contract than on 8:30 releases. When the US flash and the ISM surveys disagree in the same month, the market tends to wait for the ISM.

In Senzoukria

Flash PMI rows appear in the News calendar under EU, GB and US; rows whose name contains manufacturing, services or composite PMI are described as “PMI — leading business activity gauge.” The default country filter shows US and EU only, so enable GB to see the UK flash. With the 6E preset chosen in the news wire, “What moves my session” keeps euro-area and US releases for the next twelve hours.

The event detail repeats each release time in Chicago and UTC, which avoids the arithmetic across three time zones and the weeks when Europe and the US change clocks on different dates. The session clocks in the News terminal's top strip show whether London is open when the flashes print.